Did Lockdowns work or did they do more Harm?

I decided to make this post to ensure that we have some sort of historical record both for myself and anyone who visits this site. It goes hand in hand with all the other post on the unnecessary pandemic. The harms done will last for many years.

Below are 18 published papers finding that lockdowns had little or no effect along with some main points from each. It is shown that that will do more harm both now and in the long term. The conclusions and observation are very clear. There are many more studies and articles on the lack of effectiveness of the LOCKDOWN paradigm.  

I would like to thank Brumby from twitter @the_brumby and all the scientists and experts who have researched, collated, worked many hours and written up all their findings. This should all help to debunk the idea that lockdowns work and hopefully we will not see lockdowns used ever again in this way. However leaders in most countries that used this method for control of the virus have invested a lot in its implementation including laws and police ensuring the public adhered to law. So how will they turnaround and say it was wrong?

This 20 minute video by Nick Hudson summaries the background history to why lockdowns came into being and why lockdowns were never part of pandemic plans up until 2020.

1. Assessing mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closure effects on the spread of COVID‐19

There is no evidence that more restrictive nonpharmaceutical interventions ( lockdowns ) contributed substantially to bending the curve of new cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, or the United States in early 2020.

2. A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes

Government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality.

3. Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19: A Tale of Three Models

Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated.

4.  Was Germany’s Corona Lockdown Necessary?

Official data from Germany’s RKI agency suggest strongly that the spread of the coronavirus in Germany receded autonomously, before any interventions become effective

5. Inferring UK COVID-19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: were infections already in decline before the UK Lockdowns

 the decline in infections in England…began before full lockdown. Such a scenario would be consistent with Sweden, which began its decline in fatal infections shortly after the UK, but did so on the basis of measures well short of full lockdown.

6. Illusory Effects of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID19 in Europe

The UK lockdown was both superfluous (it did not prevent an otherwise explosive behaviour of the spread of the coronavirus) and ineffective (it did not slow down the death growth rate visibly).

Bruce Aylward from the WHO is responsible for the Lockdown idea based on a trip to China.

7. The end of exponential growth: The decline in the spread of coronavirus

 Given that the evidence reveals that the Corona disease declines even without a complete lockdown, it is recommendable to reverse the current policy and remove the lockdown

8. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Europe: A quasi-experimental study

Stay at home orders, closure of all non-essential businesses and requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public was not associated with any independent additional impact

9. Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic

These strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighbouring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.  Since the full lockdown strategies are shown to have no impact on the epidemic’s slowdown, one should consider their potentially high inherent death toll as a net loss of human lives.

10. Trajectory of COVID-19 epidemic in Europe

The model does not support [the] estimate that lockdown reduced the case reproduction number R by 81% or that more than three million deaths were averted by non-pharmaceutical interventions.

11. Did lockdowns really save 3 million COVID-19 deaths, as Flaxman et al. claim?

The case of Sweden, where the authors find the reduction in transmission to have been only moderately weaker than in other countries despite no lockdown having occurred, is prima facie evidence.

11. Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions

General social distancing was also projected to reduce the number of cases but increase the total number of deaths compared with social distancing of over 70 only   Strategies that minimise deaths involve the infected fraction primarily being in the low risk younger age groups—for example, focusing stricter social distancing measures on care homes where people are likely to die rather than schools where they are not.  The results presented in the report suggested that the addition of interventions restricting younger people might actually increase the total number of deaths from covid-19.

12. Modelling social distancing strategies to prevent SARS-CoV2 spread in Israel- A Cost-effectiveness analysis

We show that [lockdown] is modestly superior in saving lives compared to [focused protection], but with tremendous costs to prevent one case of death. This might result in overwhelming economic effects that are expected to increase future death toll.

13. Too Little of a Good Thing A Paradox of Moderate Infection Control

 For pathogens that inflict greater morbidity at older ages, interventions that reduce but do not eliminate exposure can paradoxically increase the number of cases of severe disease by shifting the burden of infection toward older individuals.

14. Smart Thinking, Lockdown and COVID-19: Implications for Public Policy

Current policy can be misdirected and can therefore have long and even short-term negative effects on human welfare and thus result in not actually minimizing death rates (incorporating externalities), especially in the long run.

15. Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes, March-April 2020

Restrictions imposed by the pandemic (e.g., stay-at-home orders) could claim lives indirectly through delayed care for acute emergencies, exacerbations of chronic diseases, and psychological distress (e.g., drug overdoses).   In 14 states, more than 50% of excess deaths were attributed to underlying causes other than COVID-19; these included California (55% of excess deaths) and Texas (64% of excess deaths)

16. Covid-19: How does Belarus have one of the lowest death rates in Europe?

 [the] President has flatly denied the seriousness of the pandemic, refusing to impose a lockdown, close schools, or cancel mass events…Yet the country’s death rate is among the lowest in Europe-just over 700 in a population of 9.5 million

17. Seroprevalence of COVID-19 in Niger State

This study shows that the virus is already here, and we must find ways of living with it such that it caused no or minimal human and socioeconomic losses in Nigeria as a whole going back to the lockdown should never again be

entertained.

Notice it says Ineffective Measures

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